Center for Systemic Risk Analysis

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Modeling exit strategies from the COVID-19 pandemics in Poland

Researchers from the Center for Systemic Risk Analysis (Andrzej Nowak, Yehuda Band (Israel), Marek Trippenbach, Szymon Malinowski, Marek Kuś, Fabian Welc, Marek Konarzewski, Sebastian Szymański, Jacek Rogala, Marcin Napiórkowski, Joanna Dreszel, Andrzej Wróbel, Grzegorz Łach), have applied to the National Science Centre for funding the grant „Modeling exit strategies from the COVID-19 pandemics in Poland”.

Currently available simulation models of on-going COVID-19 epidemics in Poland are short term and do not include exit strategies from lockdown that provide sustainable, albeit reduced, economic activity. However, according to predictions drawn from computational modeling (Ferguson et al. 2020) relaxation of the lockdown restrictions, in particular social distancing, in approximately 1 or 2 months will result in the series of epidemic relapses, continuing until the population gains group immunity. Taking into consideration that an effective vaccine or treatment will probably be unavailable in the near-term, there is an urgent need to develop mathematical models of long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic customized to Polish conditions. We understand that modeling pandemics is not a particularly original idea, and many groups of professionals and amateurs are undertaking such a task. Therefore, we propose a more comprehensive trans-disciplinary approach incorporating a broad range of factors going beyond a purely epidemiological methodology.

Project description and assumptions: Description_of_the_project

Andrzej Nowak (head)

Prof. dr hab. Andrzej Nowak

Andrzej NowakPOSITION

Andrzej Nowak is a professor of psychology working at Department of Psychology at University of Warsaw, where at Robert Zajonc Institute for Social Studies he directs Center for Complex Systems. He is also a professor at Florida Atlantic University.


Prof. Nowak is an author or editor of 16 books and over 250 papers and chapters. His research is interdisciplinary connecting social sciences, physics and computer science. He specializes in computer simulations of social processes, social influence, social change, group processes, conflict, Self-structure, interpersonal synchronization, and social processes on Internet, but also artificial intelligence, mainly artificial neural networks.  He is one of the co-creators of the approach of Dynamical Social Psychology and authors of Dynamical Theory of Social Impact, and the theory of “Bubbles of Social Change”.

Marek Trippenbach

Prof. dr hab. Marek Trippenbach <>

Marek TrippenbachPOSITION

Marek Trippenbach is a professor at the Faculty of Physics, Institute for Theoretical Physics of the University of Warsaw.


Modeling of Complex Systems, Nonlinear Optics, Quantum Optics, Chaos and Complexity.

Szymon Malinowski

Prof. dr hab. Szymon Malinowski <>


Szymon Malinowski is professor and Director of the Institute of Geophysics of the University of Warsaw.  In the emerging Center for Systemic Risk Analysis at The Robert Zajonc Institute for Social Studies (ISS) he plans to address the topic of climate change threats.


Prof. Malinowski deals with cloud physics, measurements of turbulence in the atmosphere.

Tomasz Zarycki

Prof. dr hab. Tomasz Zarycki

Photo by Piotr Malecki


Professor and Director of The Robert Zajonc Institute for Social Studies (ISS). Head of the Center for Social Change and Mobility Research.


Sociology of politics, culture, elites and knowledge, discourse analysis, historical sociology, social geography.

Marek Kuś

Prof. dr hab. Marek Kuś


Professor, Center for Theoretical Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences
Professor, International Center for Formal Ontology, Department of Administration and Social Sciences, Warsaw University of Technology – Director


mathematical physics, quantum information theory, fundamentals of quantum theory, application of methods of mathematics and physics in social sciences

Andrzej Wróbel

Prof. dr hab. Andrzej Wróbel


Professor at Department of Epistemology, Institute of Philosophy, University of Warsaw and Nencki Institute of Experimental Biology Polish Academy of Sciences


Dynamics within neuronal systems of behaving animals and humans. Adapting electrophysiological recording techniques and neuroinformatic methods for data analysis in order to understand correlation between activities of known neuronal networks and their behavioral context.

Fabian Welc

Dr hab. Fabian Welc, prof. UKSW


Professor and Director of the Archaeology Institute at Cardinal Wyszyński University in Warsaw and professor at the Faculty of Geology – University of Warsaw.


Fabian Welc is a trained archaeologist and geologist specializing in broad geoarchaeological research, with particular emphasis on issues of climate change impact on ancient cultures and civilizations.

Marek Konarzewski

Prof. dr hab. Marek Konarzewski

Marek KonarzewskiPOSITION

Professor at the Faculty of Biology, University of Białystok and Faculty of Liberal Arts, University of Warsaw; elected corresponding member of Polish Academy of Sciences.


physiological ecology and the emerging field of evolutionary physiology from molecules to ecosystems

Joanna Dreszer

Dr Joanna Dreszer


Assistant Professor at the Department of Clinical Psychology and Neuropsychology of the Institute of Psychology at the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń


Dynamics of temporal information processing, complex systems theory in psychophysiology, neuroscience of individual differences, diagnosis of cognitive functioning in the natural environment

Sebastian Szymański

Dr Sebastian Szymański


Assistant Professor of the Faculty of “Artes Liberales” of the University of Warsaw.


Sebastian Szymański is a philosopher specializing in ethics and practical ethics. His research interests are focused on the issue of justice and ethical problems regarding new technologies in particular robotics and AI as well as ethics of risk. He teaches AI ethics, roboetics, and ethics of new technologies. His field of competence includes also philosophy of science, especially philosophy of biology.

Jacek Rogala

Dr Jacek Rogala


Neurobiologist at The Institute of Physiology and Pathology of Hearing and contracted Project Leader at Nencki Institute in Warsaw.


Jacek Rogala is a neurobiologist specializing in cognitive and behavioral neuroscience. His research interests are focused on the associations between activity of the brain structures and human behavior. In particular he is interested in practical applications of EEG and fMRI neurofeedback.

Marcin Napiórkowski

Dr hab. Marcin Napiórkowski


Assistant professor, Institute of Polish Culture, University of Warsaw.


Marcin Napiórkowski uses semiotic approach to analyze cultural practices of reducing complexity. His research focuses on contemporary myths as narrative practices of dealing with the complex reality. He works with scientists, legislators, and brands to help them to communicate effectively with various audiences, especially in crisis situations.

Grzegorz Łach

Dr Grzegorz Łach


Assistant Professor professor at the Institute of Theoretical Physics of the University of Warsaw.


Grzegorz Łach is a theoretical physicist specializing in quantum field theory, especially in quantum electrodynamics of atomic and molecular systems. His research interests are focused on numerical methods and computational techniques for quantum physics and statistical physics of complex systems.

Magda Roszczyńska-Kurasińska

Magda Roszczyńska-Kurasińska


Magda Roszczyńska-Kurasińska is member of the Center for Complex Systems and New Technologies and the Global Systems Center at The Robert Zajonc Institute for Social Studies (ISS).


Her primary interest is in understanding of human behavior in social contexts, psychology of decision making, experimental economic psychology, the role of trust in interpersonal relations, policy modelling.

  • Jerzy Hausner
  • Stanisław Janeczko
  • Jorgen Vitting Andersen

The Center for Systemic Risk Analysis operates within the framework of the Robert Zajnoc Institute for Social Studies at the University of Warsaw. It operates within the framework of the University of Warsaw, but it is open to members, research and apply for scholarships from outside the University.

The Center for Systemic Risk Analysis focuses on studying threats to systems on which the functioning of humans and societies critically depends, and on seeking and supporting ways of minimising these threats The Centre is transdisciplinary in nature. It brings together researchers from different research fields and traditions, trying to create a coherent theoretical perspective that goes beyond the perspectives of individual scientific disciplines. The Centre’s area of interest is the following classes of systems:
– The environment and the social consequences of its changes,
– Economic and financial systems
– Social systems and ethics

Within this broadly defined framework of systems, narrower areas are defined on which the Centre’s current activities focus. New themes may be added or existing themes may be closed. The initial themes that the Centre wants to address are in each thematic area:

  • Climate change and its social consequences
  • Sustainable economy and stability of financial markets. An economy geared towards long-term growth and minimising environmental damage.
  • Social capital and cooperation versus conflict, polarisation and radicalisation. Social consequences of development of artificial intelligence and new technologies. Social consequences of aging.

These three thematic areas are interconnected and research will also address the relationship between processes in these areas.

The Center will be supported by the program “Excellence initiative – research university”


  • The Centre combines the approach of social and scientific sciences. These two approaches will work closely together.
  • Social processes and ethics. Social processes are fundamental in all subjects, but also the ethical issue is very clear. The task of the social group is to better and better understand social processes relating to all thematic areas of the Centre’s activities, in particular the issue of social change. They also develop research methods for studying the functioning of social systems, e.g. narration in traditional and social media. They also conduct research on effective methods of communication of systemic threats and ways to avoid or reduce them. The social-humanistic part, apart from developing theories, will follow social narratives in the area of issues of interest to us (automatic monitoring of the press and social media, researching ethical issues in these areas and determining effective ways of acting, e.g. how to change attitudes and behaviour towards climate change.
  • Mathematical modelling and computer simulations The essence of the Centre’s activity is to combine a deep insight into social sciences and humanities and the wealth of empirical data with precise mathematical models and computer simulations. The Centre develops methods of system risk modelling and simulation and models specific systems currently being studied by the Centre.

The Center will be supported by the program “Excellence initiative – research university”